What if the Field Marshal decides to visit Tripoli again ?
In a deep discussion with a comrade on the Alaash platform, he commented on the phrase “history repeats itself” by saying that history does not repeat itself; we humans insist on retracing the same steps that led our ancestors to a clear outcome, expecting a different result.
It seems our desires deceive us when we hear this, telling us and those who flatter these desires that we can retrace the same steps and change the expected outcome just because we are the ones doing it, believing ourselves to be the smartest, most skilled, most popular, and most powerful.
There are many signals picked up by some political analysts in Libya indicating that Field Marshal Haftar and his sons are preparing for another military campaign on Tripoli to seize control of the entire country. Proponents of this view argue that the current general situation in Libya sets the stage for such an attempt. Internationally, the world is largely focused on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the Russians are increasingly stabilizing their presence in Africa, expanding their influence daily, and they wouldn’t mind seeing their ally’s influence grow more within still-lost Libya. This is evident from the amount of weaponry that arrived at the Hariga port in the Libyan city of Tobruk in the east, supervised by the Russian forces in Libya (formerly Wagner), who oversaw unloading these shipments from the ship and delivering them to their destination. The same source, who documented with video the convoys of these weapons, confirmed that this was the fifth shipment in the past three months, despite some claims that these weapons are intended for Sudan and its ongoing war. However, there are those who see this support directed at the Field Marshal and his sons. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. elections somewhat restrict their freedom of movement in terms of interventions in countries and international influence, with each party in the U.S. trying to present itself to Americans as focused on domestic issues and attempting to reduce the extent of foreign interventions that drain billions from the U.S. Treasury.
Domestically, particularly in the western region, the situation of armed groups today is weaker than it was during the Field Marshal’s first visit to Tripoli! There is significant internal fragmentation, and the struggle for influence has become apparent. The war anticipated by many in Tripoli is closer than ever today. Simultaneously, some military forces have, in one way or another, established good relations with the Field Marshal’s sons, especially after the recent Derna disaster. Specifically, the 444 Brigade, which many believe will remain neutral if the Field Marshal and his sons advance toward the capital. Also, Facebook posts by Abdul Salam Al-Zoubi, commander of Brigade 111, have repeatedly expressed admiration for the military work done by the Field Marshal and his sons in the east and south of the country. Interior Minister and General Security Apparatus Chief Emad Al-Trabelsi has also stated in several press conferences that there is no disagreement with the Rajma camp, and that Libya’s security is everyone’s responsibility .
As for Misrata, it is at its weakest militarily today, with its military forces divided between those who have strong ties with the Field Marshal’s sons, specifically Mohammed Al-Hossan, a prominent military leader in Misrata, who appears in more pictures with Omar Maraja, commander of the Tariq bin Ziyad Brigade, than with his own people. Meanwhile, the city of Zawiya, which played a significant role in halting Field Marshal Haftar’s forces during his first visit to Tripoli, is at its weakest due to daily fighting among its factions .
All these indicators are also linked by some to the role suddenly played by Brigade 106’s commander Khaled Haftar in sports. Suddenly, everyone noticed Khaled’s interest in sports, particularly football, where he provided a substantial financial reward to Al-Ittihad Club players for winning the Super Cup, and previously supported Al-Madina Club and Abu Salim Club. Many see these sports interests as attempts to build a popular base for his father and brother’s potential upcoming visit to Tripoli. Meanwhile, Saddam Haftar recently conducted a military maneuver in Sirte to assess his forces’ readiness, with many seeing the symbolic significance of Sirte in this maneuver as not coincidental.
Within the Cyrenaica region, although the general view is that things are under control, many followers predict a significant conflict between the brothers Khaled and Saddam (with all due respect) once the Field Marshal is absent, as each sees himself as more deserving of succeeding the Field Marshal. A war is likely to unite the brothers for a common goal, and if they succeed in controlling Tripoli, the conflict between them would be postponed, which is what they need today .
The absence of the pivotal element in the Libyan equation, namely the people, will give all military influencers in Libya ample space to try without weariness or boredom to gain greater control and expand their influence. They are ready to use everything, from bullets to the bodies of Libyans, to increase their influence by even a single inch. Why not, when every inch of oil, gas, and blood-soaked land gives you more power and opens up greater opportunities to rule a population that pretends to be alive?
Until that happens, or doesn’t happen, prepare fortifications around your house and family to avoid becoming a casualty of this conflict, and keep your windows open so the glass doesn’t break!