Berlin Meeting and Dbeibah’s Clashes?

The attention of Libyans turned to the Berlin meeting held on 19 June 2025, which brought together most of the states intervening in Libyan affairs, as well as some European countries and the UN mission in Libya, with the aim of discussing the Libyan crisis and attempting to find an international pathway to break the political deadlock the country is experiencing, amid major security tensions witnessed in the capital Tripoli during the past month and the current half month.

It was expected that the meeting would lead to the birth of an international track setting a mechanism for choosing a new executive government to unify the divided executive authority between east and west, providing a clear and peaceful exit for the “Return of Life” government from Tripoli, especially given the escalating popular rejection of it in recent weeks, in addition to the security challenges the capital faced due to what Dbeibah’s government called a “military campaign” targeting the elimination of armed formations something that threatens an imminent security explosion in Tripoli at any moment.

However, according to many observers, the final statement of the meeting did not carry anything new, as it merely repeated the well-known rhetorical phrases Libyans are used to hearing, such as: supporting the political process, unifying state institutions, supporting the UN mission’s plans in Libya, and calling on armed actors to exercise restraint and commit to the ceasefire beautiful phrases on the surface, empty of any real effect all while Tripoli witnesses weekly popular movements demanding the departure of the “Return of Life” government, the departure of all expired legislative bodies, and a move toward presidential and parliamentary elections that end the division and reunify the country.

On the other hand, and in what resembles a parallel universe as some see it, the head of the Return of Life government, Abdelhamid Dbeibah, issued statements implying that (friction) with the remaining armed formations is inevitable. In a routine cabinet meeting, Dbeibah stated that (the state’s battle with armed formations continues), and that Tripoli (can no longer tolerate both: either the state or the formations) a clear indication that armed confrontation is coming, and some observers believe the statement is specifically directed toward the Special Deterrence Force, which in Dbeibah’s view has become the main obstacle to his government’s survival in Tripoli, and therefore must be eliminated.

It appears that Mr. Dbeibah has classified armed formations into two categories: (those with the state, and those against it) or more accurately, those aligned with the survival of his government which in his view now embodies the state itself. From here, his statement clearly signals an intention to resume confrontations with the Deterrence Force soon, as part of his government’s effort to fully control the security landscape in Tripoli and western Libya, in preparation for a potential agreement with the Haftar family in the east on forming a unified government.

This scenario is reinforced by Dbeibah’s latest remarks, in which he referred to his intention to carry out “structural changes” to his government, away from the quota logic that was “imposed on him”, as he put it, by some armed formations that have “ended forever,” and he affirmed that these changes will take into account the “social dimension” of Libyan society. Some insiders see this step as an attempt to present a “new version” of the “Return of Life” government, hoping it will gain international acceptance and be given a chance to oversee any potential electoral process.

But reality says that entering elections in the near future is almost impossible, given the absence of security and social-institutional stability, as well as the absence of genuine international consensus to reinforce this track. Despite ongoing popular protests demanding Dbeibah’s departure, the lack of a clear international vision for choosing a new unified government implicitly means the continuation of the Return of Life government in Tripoli, and Hamad’s government in the east and also means the return of armed clashes, or (frictions) as Dbeibah described them, to the streets of Tripoli which remain riddled with questions!

We previously stated in an article published months ago that (Tripoli will not exit its crisis except through war) and it seems we are returning now to this painful truth. Recent history tells us that all governments that have ruled Libya over the last decade except for the El-Keeb government arrived by bullets and left by bullets, and Dbeibah’s government will be no exception.

So, fortify yourself, dear citizen, with much patience, and be cautious the coming battles are near, and sadly, they do not distinguish between perpetrator and victim.