What Could the Next War Look Like?
We have previously said that war is one of the tools of political action, and that the conflict of interests and the lack of a clear mechanism to create a balance between them lead to clash.
If we go back to our short history over the past twelve years, we will find that with the exception of Al Keib government, all the governments that passed by us went out with a war. These wars differed in terms of their parties, their results, and the geographical area in which they occurred, but all of them went out with a war.
Everyone is aware today that there is a bottleneck in the political situation in the country. We did not succeed in holding elections on December 24th, 2021, and even after creating a consensus around a ruling authority through which the executive authority would be unified, this attempt did not last long, as the state of division quickly spread. In the nascent government, we returned to the same point from which we started.
Two armies, two governments, and two councils representing the legislative authority, weapons in the hands of everyone, international alliances that result in consequences for the residents of this country for which they and their children will pay for years to come, foreign bases in the East and West, and shuttle visits to all conflicting parties to seek the satisfaction of those with the long stick, and a painkiller called elections administered to the minds of the people whenever necessary.
Many insiders believe that the government of the return of life and its president will not hand over power to a new government, as the Master of the Rajma Dome requests in the framework of an agreement with the former State Council. On the other hand, General Haftar does not see any problem in changing the government; if it continues, he knew how to manage the country with it as had happened in the Bin Gdara deal, and if it changes, he knows that he will be part of the next government.
In the west of Libya, there are many enemies of the government of the return of life. After the opposing armed formations were expelled from Tripoli, such as Annawasi, Haitham Atajouri Channel, and Ayoub Burai, who recently paraded his forces in a assembly that seemed to be a clear message to those who expelled him from his headquarters in Tripoli, in addition to the armed formations in the city of Zawiya, which was bombed more than once by drones, and the Amazighs who were the last to join the alliance hostile to the government of the return of life. The matter is not much different in Misurata, as there are those who believe that the rule of Dbaiba family must be ended more than ever, leaving only those who have a close relationship with the family, or that the latter was able to buy them with money, as some believe.
The UN envoy seems to have been (hacked), as some see. All the attempts he makes and all his proposals are in the context of prolonging the rule of Dbaiba family as much as possible. Many parties today believe that whenever the two chambers (the House of Representatives and the State) reach a specific agreement formula, Bathily intervenes to conduct a dialogue the purpose of which is to open paths of dialogue to create an endless state of dialogue, a large circle at the end of which leads to the continuation of the matter as is.
So will things stay as is?
As we began our article, our recent history says the opposite; the Libyan character is impatient and cannot tolerate a state of quiescence, so there is no cure for this situation except war.
We say this and we are part of the people most affected by it, but it seems that all indicators lead to it, which depends on several scenarios -
-General Haftar’s exploitation of the state of military coups in Africa and the great Russian support for them, as the general is considered a strategic partner of the Russian bear, and there are about a thousand soldiers from the Wagner forces in Libya, and in light of the state of political impasse, it may give the general an opportunity to make a new attempt to extend his control over the Libyan west. But this time, it may be in cooperation with his partners, who see in him an alternative that can share power and bring down the government of the return of life.
- A military alliance linked by hostility to Dabaiba family and those affected by it, i.e. the military formations in Zawiya and the Amazigh forces in addition to the Juwaili forces, and all the armed formations that left Tripoli. This alliance is able to enter Tripoli if the 444 Forces, which are considered “discredited” by the Prime Minister of the Government of the Return of Life, are neutralized, after he agreed to the arrest of its commander, who was subjected to (slaps) inside Mitiga military base.