Meeting of the Five Untamed Elephants
It seems that whenever the Libyans approach the status of elections, all political parties try to make absent it, this has been observed in recent years, after the two councils (the Supreme Council and the House of Representatives) reached a consensus formula on the electoral laws, and was issued and handed over to the High Electoral Commission, but the UN mission, the government of the return of life and some unseen parties believe that these laws need more agreement by the political and military parties present on the Libyan scene; this is exactly what was stated by the UN envoy Abdoulaye Bathily.
Abdoulaye Bathily appears to be, in one way or another, trying to prolong the term of Dabaiba government. This is what many political parties believe, as despite the electoral laws being issued by consensus between the two councils, this event is considered an important precedent for rapprochement and coming out with a unified vision, especially since this rapprochement came after a constitutional amendment was approved. It states that the outcomes of the 6+6 Committee will be approved without discussion, and this is what happened. Despite all this effort, the UN mission still believes that this effort is insufficient, and a greater state of consensus must be created around these laws for the success of the electoral process.
Why does the mission believe this?
There are analyzes that attempt to answer this question, the most important of which is that the UN mission is trying to make Dabaiba’s government the one holding the elections, and that the issue of having a new government supervising the electoral process is illogical, although it has not declared this publicly, but there are movements that suggest this, there is also some information that is frequently reported and not based on a clear source says that the UN mission, through its head, has been involved in a case of bribery by people affiliated with Dabaiba government, and this is what makes the mission adhere to holding the meeting that was called the meeting of the five elephants, which means (the House of Representatives + the State Council + the leadership of Arrajma + the Presidential Council + the government of the return of life) as the mission believes that these bodies must agree on the electoral laws, which have become like Othman’s shirt for those who support the continuation of the situation as is.
That is why whoever presents the narrative of the mission’s involvement in collusion with the Government of the Return of Life is based on the fact that it is only logical for the government to be part of a meeting that is supposed to discuss the issue of changing it?! as if the mission is saying to the government (Come to the meeting so that we can get your opinion on the issue of changing you), in addition to the fact that the Supreme Council is no longer in the same consensus as it was during the presidency of Khaled Al Mishri, as the vision of the presidency of the Supreme Council clearly converged with the vision of the government of the return of life to the political breakthrough in which the country stands.
On the other hand, everyone knows that the issue of Aguila Saleh, the Master of the House of Representatives, replacing the government of the return of life with a new government, has become a settled issue for him, and that elections without the presence of a new government will not take place, especially since he adheres to the electoral laws that were issued recently, which stipulate that the government must be changed, and also release, for the first time, the next prime minister from being blackmailed by representatives regarding the formation of his government, as the vote of confidence will be given to the prime minister in his person, and he will then proceed to form his government in the manner that he believes will achieve his goals, thus making it easier for him to be fully held accountable for all the actions of his ministers whom he chose freely. This is what Aguila Saleh presents, bragging about the electoral laws issued every time he is asked about changing the electoral laws that came out by consensus between the two councils.
In Cyrenaica, the matter is not much different. There is a lot of information coming with the East Winds reporting that the sons of the Master of the army are trying to remove Aguila Saleh from the dome of the House of Representatives and change him similar to what happened in the Supreme Council, as the owners of this information consider the situation to continue as is in the hall of the army master, his sons, and the government of the return of life, where they can run the country in a way based on the principle of the great political analyst Abdurazaq Al Bakoush (give me and I give you). This happened in the issue of appointing Ben Guedara as head of National Oil Corporation, which Ben Guedara himself confirmed in a television interview recently.
The Presidential Council is the fifth elephant in this meeting, and many believe that its presence at the meeting table is only to create a physical balance in it. Today, it does not have popular capital, neither a military force that it actually commands, nor international relations that it can rely on and use in any negotiation situation; his situation today is similar to the Fatimid caliphs at the end of their state, (they exist and do not exist)
That is why many believe that this meeting will not produce anything tangible that can change the current situation, and if it does, the outcomes will be in the interest of the situation continuing as is, especially for the two ruling dynasties in Libya so far.