Are we facing Geneva 2?

In March 2020, Ghassan Salamé, the former head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), announced his resignation due to health issues, according to his statement. He was succeeded by his American deputy at the time, Stephanie Williams, who led a peace process between the conflicting parties that culminated in a power-sharing agreement in Geneva in late 2020.

Is history repeating itself with another American, another Stephanie, in fact—Stephanie Khoury, an American of Lebanese origin, who will assume leadership of the UN mission following the resignation of her predecessor, the Senegalese Abdoulaye Bathily?

The resignation of the head of UNSMIL, Abdoulaye Bathily, was unexpected since he had just started working on his initiative based on the idea of a quintet table bringing together what he described as the main players in the Libyan political scene. Although it was unexpected, it was also not surprising; the man failed to make any progress towards the primary goal of his mission—elections—since he assumed his position in September 2022.

Bathily’s resignation is not considered a significant development on the local scene for several reasons, primarily his inability to make any progress in the crisis as mentioned. Additionally, the role of UNSMIL has generally declined in almost all files. However, the resignation is a significant event on the international stage, as it suggests the United States’ desire to reclaim its leading role in the Libyan crisis, especially after the significant decline in American influence in Libya and Africa in general. We are witnessing signs of America's significant delay in Africa in favor of noticeable Russian advances in several countries, including Libya, of course. The assumption of American diplomat Stephanie Khoury to lead UNSMIL following Bathily’s resignation coincides with vigorous efforts by American politicians and diplomats to return their embassy to operate from within Libya after leaving the country nearly ten years ago. With this return, Khoury will receive strong diplomatic support to implement her plan once she officially takes office in June.

But what is Khoury's plan for Libya? Or rather, what is the United States' plan for Libya? Will it include a new conference similar to the Geneva Conference where new rivals share power seats? Or is her plan merely to remove the imminent Russian threat from their main bases in Southern Europe after already losing influence in Africa?

The announcement of the imminent return of the American embassy to work from Tripoli, the US Congress's approval of a financial budget to achieve this return, followed by the appointment of American diplomat Stephanie Khoury as Deputy Head of UNSMIL, and then Bathily's (unexpected yet expected) resignation for Khoury to assume the mission's leadership, are strong indications of America's urgent desire to regain influence in the Libyan crisis and return to the forefront, a position it slightly lost with Bathily's appointment following Stephanie Williams.

The fact is, the Libyan file was never of great importance to the United States per se, as much as it was important to its European allies. However, the broad increase of Russian influence in Africa generally, and Libya specifically, and Moscow’s announcement of its intention to form a military force called the African Corps to replace the infamous Wagner Group, which was Russia's military arm in the Sahel and Sahara region and carried out several successful coups in several African countries, directly resulted in the shrinkage of American and its European allies' influence, primarily France. All these transformations brought the Libyan file back to the forefront for the United States, prompting it to decide to return its embassy after ten years of absence and appoint an American to lead UNSMIL’s efforts towards parliamentary and presidential elections in the country.

Stephanie Khoury has not announced her plan, as she has not officially assumed her duties yet. However, it is certain that her plan will not stray far from Bathily's marketed initiative of the quintet table. The difference is that Khoury's table might be more stable, enjoying the absolute American support. But will she succeed in leading efforts to bring the country to elections, or will she be the architect of a new power-sharing deal among the existing power factions? Will Stephanie Khoury's table be a Geneva 2, forming a government without Libyan people's input but instead sharing positions among current power players? Or will she succeed where Bernardino León failed in Skhirat and Stephanie Williams in Geneva, leading to a table similar to the purely Libyan February Committee that, although failed in satisfactory long-term results, succeeded in holding elections with a minimum level of credibility?

Libyan power factions do not want elections because they know it will oust them. The current situation is more beneficial for them and their families, so they do not care about what Libyans want. The international community is divided on the Libyan issue, each pursuing its interests. The United States would not have cared about the Libyan issue had it not been for the Russian bear’s advance towards it. However, American interest in the Libyan issue and appointing an American citizen to lead UNSMIL, even if to counter certain Russian influence and the potential formation of a Russian military force that could trouble the US and its allies, will undoubtedly create international and regional political momentum that could benefit the Libyan issue. Stephanie Khoury's initiative could shuffle the local cards, possibly toppling some old faces and bringing in new ones, reviving the lost momentum for elections.

Despite the optimism of some Libyans about the possibility of achieving a better political equation than the current one if entering comprehensive negotiations without preconditions, and despite the hope of these and others that this could lead to general elections toppling all the current idols, the matter is very troubling knowing we have become mere extras in our own issue! Russia wants to control Africa to limit American influence, and America wants to return to the Libyan file to limit Russian influence. Between these influences, the allies of both camps might meet and come up with a deal that revives hope in resurrecting our state, or at least postponing its inevitable fall.